Portfolio Strategy

August 15, 2018

By the Numbers

Consumer credit: Debt trends higher, delinquencies remain subdued

August 15, 2018

This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors.

Household debt continues to notch record highs with negligible signs of consumer stress. Consumer debt delinquency rates in mortgage, home equity, credit card and student loans, continue to be stable or trend downward over the last five years. Auto loans are the exception: 90 day delinquency rates have been rising steadily since 1Q15, though they fell modestly from 4.26% in 1Q18 to 4.17% in 2Q18. The trend in auto loan delinquencies mirrors the share of subprime auto lending. Subprime auto loans as a percentage of all originations hit a trough in 2009 and have since gradually increased, though still remain below their pre-crisis peak. By contrast, mortgage and home equity delinquencies are on a path to return to their pre-crisis lows – as subprime mortgages have comprised at best a sliver of originations since 2009. The complete Fed report on household debt and credit is here. (FRBNY, APS)

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